Expert Interviews in the Trump Era: Adapting Market Research to Geopolitical Uncertainty
In today’s turbulent geopolitical landscape, businesses are struggling to make sense of shifting policies, global realignments, and unpredictable regulatory environments. Nowhere is this more evident than in the United States, where the Trump era continues to shape the political and economic climate. For researchers, investors, and strategists alike, these changes directly affect how market intelligence is gathered and interpreted.
One of the most powerful tools for navigating uncertainty is the expert interview. Speaking directly with industry insiders provides a level of expert knowledge that cannot be obtained through data scraping, public filings, or analyst reports alone. However, the current climate brings new challenges to conducting qualitative research, requiring a more nuanced and adaptable approach.
Why Expert Interviews Matter More Than Ever
The U.S. market remains the largest and most dynamic in the world. Yet trade policy shifts, supply chain disruptions, and sector-specific regulations can alter business trajectories overnight. For investors conducting commercial due diligence research, relying solely on quantitative models is risky.
This is where bespoke qualitative research plays a decisive role. Expert interviews uncover:
Subtle market signals that may not yet appear in hard data.
First-hand perspectives on regulatory trends, tariffs, or sanctions.
Sector-specific insights on demand, pricing, and competitive pressures.
Forward-looking assessments of policy impacts from those on the ground.
For decision-makers, these perspectives transform raw information into actionable intelligence.
Challenges in the Trump Era
While expert interviews are indispensable, the current environment presents several hurdles:
Polarisation of Perspectives
Political divisions run deep in the U.S., and this polarisation seeps into business conversations. Experts may bring their own biases, particularly when discussing trade, regulation, or foreign investment. Researchers must distinguish between ideological opinion and verifiable market signals.Increased Reluctance to Speak
Executives and industry professionals are more cautious about sharing candid views, especially when policies can change overnight. Concerns over confidentiality and reputational risk mean that some experts prefer to remain guarded.Sector-Specific Volatility
Industries such as energy, technology, and manufacturing are heavily affected by shifting policies. An expert interview conducted six months ago might already be outdated. Continuous engagement and updated perspectives are critical.Global Repercussions
Trump-era policies resonate beyond U.S. borders. Trade agreements, tariffs, and geopolitical posturing affect European, Asian, and Middle Eastern markets. Researchers must therefore frame questions with an international lens, not just a U.S.-centric one.
Adapting Expert Interviews to New Realities
To overcome these challenges, researchers need to refine both methodology and mindset. Here are practical strategies for conducting successful expert interviews in the current era:
1. Prepare With Precision
In a polarised environment, vague or broad questions often elicit vague answers. Prepare specific, targeted questions that encourage clarity without steering responses. This helps separate facts from political commentary.
2. Diversify the Expert Pool
Avoid relying on a narrow set of voices. By interviewing experts across different regions, roles, and ideological perspectives, you build a more balanced and reliable picture of market realities.
3. Reassure on Confidentiality
Transparency about the purpose of the research, along with strict confidentiality protocols, encourages openness. Remind experts that their insights are anonymised and will not be directly attributed.
4. Contextualise Bias
Every expert brings a perspective shaped by personal experience and political climate. Rather than dismissing bias, researchers should acknowledge it and analyse how it might influence market interpretation.
5. Embrace Iterative Research
Given the pace of policy change, one-off interviews are insufficient. Ongoing bespoke qualitative research ensures decision-makers always have up-to-date insights.
6. Align With Quantitative Data
While qualitative insights provide context and nuance, combining them with hard numbers strengthens credibility. Expert interviews should validate or challenge quantitative findings, not replace them.
The Role of Expert Interviews in Commercial Due Diligence
For private equity firms, investment funds, and corporate strategists, commercial due diligence research is particularly vulnerable to geopolitical shifts. Whether evaluating a U.S. manufacturer affected by tariffs or a tech firm navigating new regulatory frameworks, decisions require deep market context.
Expert interviews allow due diligence teams to:
Test assumptions against real-world operational experiences.
Understand competitive dynamics that numbers alone cannot reveal.
Identify regulatory risks and opportunities tied to political decisions.
Gauge sentiment across supply chains, customers, and competitors.
By integrating expert knowledge into due diligence, investors can make informed decisions even in unpredictable times.
Looking Ahead
The Trump era underscores the fragility and volatility of today’s business environment. For researchers, analysts, and investors, the lesson is clear: static reports and outdated data are no longer enough. Instead, adaptive, forward-looking methods like expert interviews and bespoke qualitative research must anchor strategic decision-making.
While challenges such as polarisation, bias, and reluctance persist, these obstacles are not insurmountable. With careful preparation, methodological rigor, and a diversified pool of perspectives, expert interviews remain the most effective way to unlock market intelligence in times of uncertainty.
For organisations navigating the U.S. market—or global industries influenced by it—the path forward lies in balancing numbers with nuanced voices. In doing so, businesses can turn geopolitical turbulence into actionable opportunity.
Outman Consulting specialises in designing and executing expert interviews tailored to each client’s needs. By combining qualitative insights with rigorous analysis, we help organisations cut through noise, identify risks, and seize opportunities in even the most uncertain environments.